UN planetary defense organizations are actively monitoring an asteroid that presents a minimal risk of colliding with Earth.
The European Space Agency (ESA) has reported that there is nearly a 99% likelihood that the asteroid will safely pass by Earth on December 22, 2032; however, the possibility of an impact “cannot be completely dismissed.”
Currently, the estimated probability of the asteroid, designated 2024 YR4, impacting Earth on that date stands at 1.3%.
Dr. Robert Massey from the Royal Astronomical Society has stated that he is “not panicking or losing sleep over it.”
“There is no cause for alarm,” he remarked. “Historically, such events tend to resolve themselves as calculations are refined.”
It is essential to remain vigilant and ensure that astronomers are provided with the necessary resources to monitor these potential threats, enabling prompt action if required.
YR4 was first identified on December 27, 2024. Astronomers have estimated its size to be between 40 meters and 90 meters in diameter. Should it collide with Earth, it could unleash energy equivalent to that of a nuclear bomb, resulting in significant damage, particularly if the impact occurs in a populated area.
However, it is far more probable that YR4 would land in the ocean or in a remote region of the planet. Given its considerable distance from Earth and the numerous uncertainties at this stage, it is challenging to predict where a potential impact might occur in the unlikely event of a collision.
Since early January, astronomers have been utilizing telescopes to more accurately assess the asteroid’s size and trajectory. YR4 is currently classified as a level 3 on the Torino Impact Hazard Scale, indicating “a close encounter that warrants attention from astronomers and the public.” A collision is deemed certain only when the scale reaches levels 8, 9, or 10, with the numbers increasing in accordance with the potential damage.
When asteroids are initially assessed to have a low probability of impacting Earth, this likelihood typically decreases to zero following further observations.
This was the case in 2004 when an asteroid named Apophis was initially calculated to have a 2.7% chance of striking Earth in 2029; subsequent observations led to a reassessment.