This story was excerpted from Keegan Matheson’s Blue Jays Beat newsletter.
Toronto – The only Blue Jays news this offseason has been the lack of news, their failed Shohei Ohtani pursuit rolling into a market that hasn’t quite gotten off the ground yet. The Blue Jays aren’t alone in this by any means, but with Christmas a week away, they’re staring at a long to-do list.
With the Ohtanis and Juan Sotos of the world off the board, it’s time to come back down to Earth and focus on the broader issues the Blue Jays face. This starts with power, a wonderful thing that can make so many other problems disappear.
Power had become part of the Blue Jays’ identity. Those electrifying postseason runs in 2015-16 were built by an offense that could be down six runs and still feel like the favorite. In ‘21, this new era of competitiveness felt fully realized when the Blue Jays exploded with baseball’s best offense, albeit one that fell short of the postseason. This club has been built for power, even with their pivot one year ago to improve its defense, but something changed a year ago.
The 2023 Blue Jays finished 13th in slugging percentage (.413) and 16th in home runs (188). Above them in each category, to little surprise, you’ll find the clubs who went deeper into the postseason. While the Blue Jays tried to embrace the identity of a more balanced offensive team as the year went on, this remained a glaring area to improve in. This lineup is too talented to have one player (Vladimir Guerrero Jr.) cracking the 22-homer plateau.
Power is baseball’s best makeup. Toronto’s struggles to hit with runners in scoring position early in the season, or some late mental mistakes, could easily be covered up by an extra home run every week or two. The trade market can open so many unexpected doors, but let’s start with what’s available on the open market.
TOP OF THE MARKET
Cody Bellinger’s range of outcomes is massive. You’d need to take a 10-hour flight, a train ride and a ferry to get from his ceiling to his floor. This can’t be comforting for teams considering a contract north of $200 million.
There’s a reason many are interested, though, including the Blue Jays. Bellinger’s .525 slugging percentage a year ago while with the Cubs would have been the best among the Blue Jays’ regulars, and his 26 home runs fall right in line. That lefty bat could look beautiful in this lineup, risks and all, and could still leave the Blue Jays some room to shop at the bottom of the market for a DH type.
THE REST OF THE MARKET
There are so many ways for the Blue Jays to piece this together still. Veteran J.D. Martinez is coming off a 33-homer season and needs a new home, with a two-year deal making plenty of sense for the Blue Jays. Then, there’s Jorge Soler, coming off a 36-homer campaign with the Marlins. Soler should land a longer deal than Martinez, but as a primary DH, perhaps three years works.
Rhys Hoskins remains one of this market’s best fits for the Blue Jays. The 30-year-old with 30-homer power is coming off a torn ACL and an ideal candidate for a pillow deal to reestablish his value. If he’s open to the Brandon Belt role, there’s a clear fit in Toronto. A reunion with Teoscar Hernández feels unlikely, but his market is particularly unpredictable given how clubs view his defense.
His bat still works … when he makes contact.
INTERNAL OPTIONS
There’s not another 2021 Vladdy waiting around the corner, but the Blue Jays finally have some legitimate position player prospects on the doorstep.
Davis Schneider has earned a job in 2024, it’s just a matter of where. Second base with a sprinkle of third base and left field sounds likeliest. Schneider’s pull-power approach was a breath of fresh air in Toronto late last season and, much like Danny Jansen, Schneider knows exactly what he’s good at.
Others, like Addison Barger, have some power potential to watch in Spring Training, but if there’s one name to dream on, it’s Orelvis Martinez. The Blue Jays’ No. 2 prospect just turned 22 and still very much “developing,” but his pop is rare. Martinez is coming off 30 and 28 home runs the past two seasons in the Minor Leagues, and while he’s endured some downright brutal stretches where he’s racked up strikeouts at alarming rates, he showed clear improvements as 2023 went on and will be tested again in Triple-A. If it all comes together — and what a dream that would be — Martinez could get his shot by mid-season.
Source: https://www.mlb.com/bluejays/news