The Canadian Real Estate Association (CREA) has revised its home sales forecast for this year, reporting a 9.3 percent decline in the number of homes sold nationwide in March compared to the same month last year.
According to the association, March home sales in Canada also experienced a 4.8 percent decrease on a seasonally adjusted basis from February, as potential buyers remained hesitant due to concerns regarding tariffs and economic instability.
In its updated forecast, CREA anticipates that a total of 482,673 residential properties will be sold this year, which is largely consistent with the 2024 projection but represents a significant reduction from the January forecast that had predicted an 8.6 percent increase.
This adjustment marks the most substantial revision by CREA between its quarterly forecasts since the financial crisis of 2008-2009, as noted by the association.
“Until now, the decline in home sales has primarily been attributed to uncertainty surrounding tariffs. Moving forward, the Canadian housing market will also face the repercussions of actual economic impacts,” stated CREA senior economist Shaun Cathcart in a press release.
“We have swiftly transitioned from anticipating a strong rebound year to merely maintaining the status quo.”
The national average home price is expected to see a slight annual decrease of 0.3 percent, bringing it to $687,898 in 2025, which is approximately $30,000 lower than earlier predictions made in January.
In March, the national average sale price dropped by 3.7 percent compared to the previous year, settling at $678,331.
With 39,202 home sales recorded for the month, this figure represents the lowest level of activity for March since 2009. The association highlighted that sales have declined over the past few months in nearly all markets across the country, with the most significant drops occurring in Ontario and British Columbia.
Re/Max area vice-president Kingsley Ma remarked that for many prospective buyers who were already cautious due to high interest rates, the added uncertainty from tariffs has further contributed to their reluctance.
Currently, individuals are expressing concerns such as, “What if I lose my job due to the tariffs?” Their hesitation is not rooted in a lack of financial means to make purchases, but rather in their desire to understand the future of their employment so they can strategize accordingly, he explained.
“I believe this uncertainty will persist for at least the next few months, as people remain unsure about how to navigate the upcoming changes,” he added.
In March, the number of newly listed properties increased by three percent compared to the previous month. By the end of the month, a total of 165,800 properties were available for sale, marking an 18.3 percent rise from the same period last year, although still falling short of the long-term average of approximately 174,000 listings typical for this time of year.
“Significantly, the market dynamics are heavily favoring buyers in British Columbia and Ontario, and the previously tight Alberta market is also loosening quickly,” noted TD economist Rishi Sondhi in a report.
He further indicated that the ongoing rise in supply coupled with weak demand implies that average home prices in Canada are likely to decrease in the second quarter, following a five percent decline in the first quarter of the year.
While some buyers may seek to capitalize on the declining home prices, Ma mentioned that many will prefer to wait until the tariff situation stabilizes before making any decisions.
He suggested that the fall season might be the earliest opportunity for the market to rebound if tariffs are eliminated.
“It will likely take a couple of months for individuals to regain the confidence needed to plan ahead,” he remarked.
On Tuesday, CREA announced its revised forecast, predicting a 2.9 percent increase in national home sales, reaching 496,487 by 2026. The national average home price is anticipated to rise by 1.2 percent from 2025, reaching $696,074 next year.