Friedrich Merz’s conservative coalition has emerged victorious in Germany’s national parliamentary election, achieving a historic high for the far-right.
The conservative bloc, comprising Merz’s Christian Democratic Union (CDU) and its Bavarian counterpart, the Christian Social Union (CSU), is projected to secure approximately 29 percent of the vote, significantly outpacing all other parties based on initial results.
Merz proclaimed his victory shortly after the figures were disclosed at 6:30 p.m. in Berlin.
“The world outside is not pausing for us, nor is it waiting for protracted coalition discussions,” Merz stated to supporters in the German capital. “We must swiftly restore our capacity to act, ensuring we address domestic issues effectively and reestablish Germany’s reliable governance in Europe.”
In the election held on Sunday, the far-right Alternative for Germany (AfD), known for its strong anti-migration and pro-Russia positions, is projected to secure second place with 19.6 percent of the vote. This marks the party’s best performance in a national election within Europe’s most influential nation, sending ripples of concern across the continent.
Alice Weidel, the AfD’s chancellor candidate, characterized the outcome as a “historic success.”
“We will hold the other parties accountable to implement sensible policies for our nation,” she remarked, expressing her willingness to engage in coalition discussions with the CDU, a prospect that Merz has dismissed.
The performance of smaller parties will be pivotal for coalition stability.
As the evening progresses, the projections based on voter counts will be refined, with near-final results expected before midnight in Berlin.
The success of smaller parties, including The Left, the liberal Free Democrats (FDP), and the populist-left Sahra Wagenknecht Alliance (BSW), will be critical in determining the ease and stability of Merz’s coalition formation. These parties must exceed the 5 percent threshold to gain representation in the Bundestag, Germany’s lower house.
According to projections released by broadcaster ARD, the Left party is expected to secure 8.6 percent of the vote, ensuring its entry into the Bundestag. The Free Democratic Party (FDP) is anticipated to receive 4.9 percent, making its fate uncertain. The BSW party is also projected to fall just short of the threshold with 4.7 percent.
Should at least two of these three parties gain parliamentary representation, it will complicate negotiations for Merz as he seeks to form a coalition, likely necessitating a three-party government. This scenario would make it significantly more challenging to achieve consensus on his policy agenda. Conversely, if two of these parties do not meet the threshold, Merz may have the opportunity to form a coalition with only one additional party.
Merz stands as a formidable opponent to Angela Merkel. His ascent to leadership comes at a pivotal moment for Europe. The actions of U.S. President Donald Trump, which have disrupted the post-World War II order by frequently aligning with Russian President Vladimir Putin and raising doubts about U.S. support for European defense, suggest that Merz’s potential chancellorship could be the most consequential since the Cold War.
Merz will be Germany’s first center-right leader following Angela Merkel’s departure in 2021. Despite their shared party affiliation, they are fierce rivals; during the election campaign, Merkel criticized Merz for his alignment with the far-right’s stringent policies and for breaking the long-standing practice of not relying on their parliamentary support.
The Alternative for Germany (AfD) is projected to achieve a historic second-place finish, nearly doubling its results from 2021, positioning it as the largest opposition party in parliament, as all mainstream parties have ruled out forming a coalition with it.
The center-left Social Democratic Party (SPD), led by incumbent Chancellor Olaf Scholz, is expected to experience its poorest performance in a national parliamentary election since adopting its current name in 1890, finishing third with 16 percent.
The center-left Greens, which have governed in coalition with the SPD, came in fourth with 13.3 percent.
The vote took place seven months ahead of schedule, following the collapse of Chancellor Olaf Scholz’s SPD-led coalition late last year. Some 630 parliamentary seats are up for grabs, to be distributed proportionally.